Global economy will suffer from Russia’s war on Ukraine, OECD warns – …


Russia’s war in Ukraine will disrupt commerce and clog up supply chains, slashing economic growth and pushing prices severely higher around the globe, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned Thursday.

In a grim new assessment, the 38-country OECD said that over the next year, the conflict would reduce gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — by 1.08% worldwide, by 1.4% in the 19 European countries that proportion the euro money and by 0.88% in the United States.

But government spending and tax cuts could slightly limit the damage, the organization said.

The Russian invasion came at a time when prices were already surging and supply chains were snarled, fallout from an unexpectedly strong recovery from the coronavirus recession. The OECD, which in December forecast global inflation of 4.2% this year, expected that the conflict would excursion up prices by 2.47 percentage points worldwide over the next year.

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Russia and Ukraine explain less than 2% of global GDP but are heavyweight producers of specific commodities. Together, for example, they export a third of the world’s wheat, raising concerns that countries like Egypt and Lebanon that rely on those affordable wheat exports for bread and other food staples could confront shortages in the months ahead.

Russia is also a big producer of potash that is used in fertilizer, palladium that is basic for cars, cellphones and dental fillings and nickel used in electric car batteries and steel.

Prices of those commodities have surged since January.

Hit by sanctions, Russia and its economy have absorbed a huge blow. The ruble has plummeted in value, and Russian oil is selling at a big discount on world markets.

© 2022 The Canadian Press

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